The fragility of complex systems

(I hope you didn't drown in my stream of consciousness during the last post. Now on to those signs of intelligent life.) 

If you've ever wanted an intelligent analysis of the probability of  some key future trends, look no further than the recent Seattle Times column by Jon Talton. He highlights the findings of a report by the McKinsey Global Institute.

Many of the trends in the lengthy bullet list are already happening or are well on their way to becoming reality. Regardless of how business leaders and policymakers react to the disruptions that come from these future events, very few "...account for the fragility of complex systems."

Talton cites several economists who see either a prolonged stagnation or an eventual recovery. For what it is worth he doesn't necessarily side with one or the other in this long-running debate, but one statement that remains questionable is:

"Policymakers must ensure that retraining is ramped up to maintain advanced workforce skills."

So we know that everyone must "...maximize their opportunities while dealing with the challenges." But hasn't the get-more-education-and-you-will-prevail sentiment long since been dismantled by so many who have already tried? The point is, if the predicted changes are happening at such an accelerated speed, how can any class of working individuals maintain their workforce skills?  Talton says business will need to be an early adopter. I agree, and yet business is not very supportive of expenditure on worker retraining. That is left to the public sphere that grows more circumspect about where to place its monetary emphasis.

Who can blame them? We are obviously in a bind between what is already happening, especially in terms of automated knowledge work, and the future displacement of people who have already trained well for a future that will now nullify the validity of their training. This is a cruel trap played out over and over again.

As I was discussing this topic with my husband I couldn't help but state the obvious:

"Bill Joy was right! The future doesn't need to accommodate as many people as will populate it and then what?"

Try as I might not to turn into a 21st century version of Chicken Little, I couldn't think my way out of this conclusion. Mr. Joy had it all pegged back in April 2000.

Do you trust the so-called business leaders? Policymakers? Hmmm, should I learn how to make a drone so I can help Amazon conquer the world in record time? Right to your door in 30 minutes! If speed of delivery by drone deposit is the best innovation our business leaders have to offer, we've got a lot more to worry about than being obsolete.